EM Storm Watch
XGBoost solar-to-ground proxy model, live on NOAA ACE real-time solar wind data
99.8%
predicted probability of Kp ≥ 5.0 within the next ~45 minutes
0%100%
Based on ACE solar wind data observed at 2026-10-11T01:00:00 UTC · logged 2026-10-11T02:13:49.627698+00:00
Feature snapshot
DOY284.000
Hour1.000
IMF_Mag19.461
Plasma_Speed679.326
Proton_Density0.711
By_GSE-7.573
Bz_GSE10.877
Energy_Flux0.000
B_total19.461
B_azimuth-0.608
Newell_Coupling1733.927
Newell_3H_Integral18060.676
Bz_3H_Max10.877
Bz_3H_Min3.947
B_std_3H0.703
Track record
Scored against NOAA's official planetary Kp index once each 3-hour window closes.
0
scored predictions
2
awaiting ground truth
—
recall (storms caught)
—
precision
—
F1
Recent predictions
| Observed (UTC) | Probability | Predicted | Actual Kp | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11T01:00:00 | 99.8% | Storm | — | |
| 2026-10-11T00:00:00 | 99.8% | Storm | — |
Model source: Erdos-Projects/spring-2026-electromagnetic-risk-prediction · data: NOAA SWPC